SPX Overview

Here is a chart of the S&P 500 including dividends (red) monthly. I've included the 7.57% compounded growth trend since 1950 with a pair of over and under percentage brackets. The heavy green line is the actual S&P500 minus the 7.57% trendline (scaled as percent to right). I would expect to see the market move in the range shaded in pink, under the 7.57% trend but above the lower envelope.

S&P 500 including dividends (red) monthly
Click to enlarge

SPX.X Cycles

The trading cycles seem to be stabilizing. What may be significant is that the dominant period has shortened from 55/110 days to 42/84 days. The 21 day period is a little sloppier.

Individual stocks seem to be doing their own thing as investors rearrange their portfolios to position themselves for 2010 and complete whatever tax loss selling remains. My current expectation is for continuing choppy weakness in the market until the 1st or 2nd trading days in 2010 which should be a tradable low. All this assumes the MCO behaves appropriately for the next couple of weeks.

The SPX daily chart with time cycles.
Expect market weakness until after New Years day.
Click to enlarge.

DJIA Midday 12/1/09

The DJIA at the start of December
Click to enlarge

Dubai Doubts Dampen Markets

Negative financial news from the middle east put a damper on stock prices worldwide last week. This was the impetus needed to weaken the US markets in order to complete the bottoming process we are observing. While the Dubai news rattled US investors, US banks apparently do not have much exposure to Dubai debt and the market weakness in all sectors seems more of a cash raising action than anything else.

The McClellan Oscillator is continuing its correction and suggests that we could easily see a few more days of weakness without signaling anything more negative that what I have previously suggested. In the chart below I've drawn in the measure for a head and shoulders reversal pattern and the initial price SPX targets.

The McClellan Oscillator for the week ending 11/27/09.
Click to enlarge.

Added midday 11/30/09
SPX 65 minute chart at midday 11/30/09
There should be a cycle low about noon tomorrow 12/1.
Click to enlarge.

Tax Loss Selling

So far it appears that the intermediate term bullish move in the market remains intact and should achieve higher prices over the next year. In my opinion the recent correction is primarily the result of tax loss selling. Considering the severity of last years crash most of the public is probably not participating in the current rally. This leaves the brave and foolish, hedge funds and other professionals. Considering that the SPX has rallied over 60% off its March lows we should expect some profit taking and the offsetting tax loss selling as we near year end.

SPX 65 minute chart with cycles for 11/20/09
Click to enlarge
Another observation. The cycle stuff got really noisy in the crash last year, so I haven't been giving them much weight this year. However, the market is settling down and I'm starting to see the cycles working a bit better. Simple ones, 10 day and 21 day have started to look promising. The next low should be around the end of the day on 12/1 or early to mid day on 12/2. The 65 minute technical indicators (RSI, STO, MACD) also indicate we may need a bit more work before a reversal can get established.

Note: So far Monday's premarket looks like we will see a strong opening, it's possible the retest finished up Friday but I'm skeptical.

At the start of November the MCO went below -300 which is quite oversold and generally results in a bounce which is what occurred. At the same time the 10% Index held above the -500 threshold which is encouraging. Currently the MCO is again showing some weakness which could be a retest of the recent lows. There has been a fairly clean 20-21 day trading cycle on my 65 minute chart which suggests that after another 4-5 days of testing the upward trend should resume.

MCO for 11/20/09
Click to enlarge
Since we did not see a sharp correction in the Indexes it would indicate that we are experiencing a rotating correction among the individual issues and continuing accumulation which is keeping the index prices firm. We are in a seasonally strong period as retirement fund capital looks for a place to go. In my opinion bonds not only have low yields but also face pricing risks over the next 18 months as the Fed will eventually have to raise interest rates. This leaves equities as the only real choice and should provide support for blue chip issues.

Percent of NYSE issues above key moving averages.
Click to enlarge
The chart above tracks the percentage of stocks above their key moving averages. At the start of November both the 20 day and 50 day dropped into the general oversold level and bounced. Both are showing a bit of weakness which concurs with the MCO action and could last another 4-5 trading days. The percent of stocks above their 200 day average has broken the down trend and most likely will stay above the 50% level for the simple reason that it moves much slower.

Historically the end of the 2nd year of the presidential cycle is weak but it is hard to tell given how bad the crash was. One thing for sure, the rise since march, at least the first 50%, was mostly just a recovery of the extreme overshoot/panic on the downside. It is unlikely the markets will continue moving higher at the same rate we saw over the last 8 months. All of this still allows for the rally continuing towards my 1200-1300 SPX target followed by a fall 2010 decline back towards the 1000 area (roughly 20%)

One final note. Since I was missing in action for the last few months, I've received a couple of emails from some of the readers of this blog. I'm here but I don't know who is following along unless I hear from you every once in awhile.

Have a great Thanksgiving everyone.

Long Legs - MCO update

There is not a whole lot to say here, the SPX has tremendous upward momentum. Most of the indicators are overbought and a correction is always possible but there is no indication of a top yet. NYSE New Highs hit 177 and are expanding from the 33 plateau of the last three months. NASDAQ/NYSE volume rations are still favorable.

MCO for 8/04/09
Yesterdays SUM Index was a new high

Got the reversal- How long are the legs?

The McClellan Oscillator remains in bullish territory, We are seening a stall here at the upper trendline, a break above the line will be accompanied by a sharp move in price. Of course, the possibility exists for a minor pullback here, but upward momentum is very strong and pullbacks shoould be met with buying.

MCO for Monday July 27, 2009
Click to enlarge

MCO Reversal

Note this was originally posted on July 20, 2009 on my other blog by accident -- I've moved it over here just to keep the flow

The McClellan Oscillator has confirmed the reversal I anticipated in the last post. More importantly the 10% Index has again gone above the +500 level which indicates the market has farther to go on the upside.

We are a tad overbought here but it appears to me the market is crashing up.

What I mean by this is that it is doing the reverse of what it did in 2008 when the 10% Index kept penetrating the -500 level and the decline persisted after all attempts to rally. In my opinion the opposite is happening and all the forthcoming pullbacks should be considered as shakeouts.

The McClellan Oscillator for7/20/09
Click to enlarge

Setup for a reversal

It's been a rugged four weeks but barring a deep plunge with lopsided advance decline stats a reversal looks like it's about to start. It's possible to see another price zig zag in the lower end of the range but given the overly negative sentiment numbers I doubt this will happen. Although it has taken up four weeks the correction has been rather shallow as the indexes follow the 200 day averages a bit lower. This has masked deeper corrections in individual stocks which is weighing heavily on the sentiments of individual investors. It appears everyone is looking for lower prices. This may not happen, the various technical indicators are signaling that the correction has been deep enough and long enough to sustain a rally for more than a week or two. July 15th is an anniversary date and a cycle point which should be a reversal higher.

The NYSE McClellan Oscillator
Click to enlarge

Summer Rally?

I remain bullish. The market has worked off the overbought readings on the 50 day percent indicator and while we could see a 2-5 day pullback in the thin pre-holiday trading, the market looks poised to move higher.

Percent Above the 200 day and 50 day Averages
Click to enlarge

Reaching Oversold Levels

We are again reaching oversold levels on the McClellan Oscillator. With the SPX testing the 50 and 200 day moving averages it is likely that we should find a low in here sometime in the next few days. It is possible that the initial bounce may be a "B" wave and not establish the final bottom. Barring a complete implosion with the 10% index going below -500, the trend still remains up

The McClellan Oscillator for June 22
Click to Enlarge

First week of June

Some standard technical indicators with added emphasis on the period when the SPX was below the 5 year Bollinger Band. I view this period as highly significant and as extremely rare (by definition). As a result most indicators have also been out-of-limit causing most market watchers to draw incorrect conclusions. We are just now seeing the market trade inside the Bollinger Bands and the indicators are skewed because it took so long for this to occur. I would continue to watch out for short term oversold indications but remembering this:

Where we are in the market cycle should be viewed as only ONE monthly bar off the bottom (May) all pullbacks should be treated as buying opportunities.

The short term cycles, including the fibonacci counts, point to the period of June 21, give or take a few days. Around that time I would expect the direction of the market to reverse strongly. If it's declining into the June 21st period, it should be a low.

SPX Weekly & Bullish Percent Indicator
Pinkish bars are the weekly ranges.
Click to enlarge


SPX Daily and the ARMs Index.
Click to enlarge

May Wrapup

The MCO has been in a zig-zag correction in negative territory for the last few weeks and turned positive on Friday.

The MONTHLY SPX had its first close above the 5 year lower Bollinger Band in 7 months. The market gains for the months of March and April are being misread by many other players and being seen a bear market rally which they suggest is now over because of the large percentage gains. In my opinion, the price action moving the SPX back to the lower Bollinger Band was just correcting a panic overshoot on the downside. This moved prices up to the undervalued zone at the lower BB which has been a good buying point in the past. The month of May saw continuation of the rally along with a corrective sideways pause which should now be resolved to the upside.

On the daily chart I've marked the 928 zone, which is the location of the declining 200 day moving average and the upper 20 day Bollinger band, as a point of resistance --- This seems like a logical point for the index to pause but given the recent pauuse in the MCO, along with the sideways correction over the last two weeks, I believe the SPX is poised to punch through the 200 day average, turning up the Bollinger bands, and then punch through SPX 1000 before we see a more substantial 10% to 12% correction

The MCO at the end of May
Click to enlarge

The Monthly SPX at the end of May
Click to enlarge

The Daily SPX at the end of May
Click to enlarge

Some Perspective

The chart says it all, it's either the end of the world as we know it, or not. Place your bets.
The SPX and the McClellan Summation Index since 1969
Click to enlarge

SPX cycles update

It was clear right after the previous post that the higher projection was not going to be met when the indices and the MCO broke down early last week. The MCO is currently making a zig-zag in the -100 zone which is oversold enough for a bounce but it could drop a bit further into the -150 zone.

This is not guaranteed and the cycles are still pointing out a bit towards May 21st for a CIT date. Since it is not likely to be a high, then it should be a low, and the indices could stall here or even go a bit lower before resuming the up trend.

Because the SUM Index approached the 5000 level the bullish trend should continue for several more months.

SPX 65 minute chart with cycles
Click to enlarge

SPX Projection

Risking the chance of looking foolish again, I worked up a forward price-time projection. The time span is based on fibonacci symmetry forwards and backwards from the "S" inflection midpoint. Target is SPX 990-1000 on 5/21/09.

SPX 65 minute chart - Symmetry Projection
Click to enlarge

SPX Cycles for 5/8/09

An updated cycle chart for the SPX 65 minute chart. Should be self explanatory, if not ask.

SPX 65 Minute Cycle Chart
Click to enlarge

SPX Bollinger Bands

If we back up and look at the markets from a bit of a distance it may be easier to get a grip on the more intermediate term direction which is being taken -- up. Rather than use the monthly chart which compresses all the daily emotions into a few bars, I set up my daily chart with moving averages that are the equivalent of 5 year, 1 year and 1 quarter, and then added the appropriate 2 standard deviation Bollinger Bands.

It is clear from this chart that the recent rally has only been correcting a statistically extreme condition and only this week has the SPX moved inside the 5 year 2 STDEV BB's. One can see from the monthly chart I posted earlier that this condition only occurs a few times in a century. I still feel we will se a retest of the lower % year BB, that could happen at any time but it is more likely it will happen at some point after the SPX penetrates the 1000 level. This is still in the long term undervaluation zone and I suggest that the retest will be successful and followed by a rally to the 5 year price average, roughly 1250. At that point I will open a good bottle of Bordeaux and ruminate on what comes next.

The SPX and some longer term Bollinger Bands
Click to enlarge (1600 px wide)

SPX Cycles

After todays close, the percentage of stocks above their 50 and 200 day moving averages is in thin air and suggesting to me a correction is very likely. Previously the weakness in the Percent of Stoocks Above the 200 Day Average left room for the shorter measure to remain overbought. At this point I think this is no longer the case and a 2-5 day correction is very likely

Percent of Stocks above their 50 and 200 Day Averages
Click to Enlarge

Mid day chart: SP500 Daily with cycles bars
Looks to go higher over the intermediate term.
Click to Enlarge

Don't Fight the FED

The US markets are behaving bullishly, why? Because it is in the best interest of the country to stop a financial collapse and the government is going to do whatever is necessary to assure this. All the old rules are out the window.

The lower chart goes back to 1929 and is a good indication of both how bad the recent decline was and that this may be the be the buying opportunity since the great depression. The potential to retest the February lows still exists but any such decline will be quickly retraced. This is not a 1929 scenario, that is what the mega-bears expect and are positioning for -- so it isn't going to happen.

In the upper chart, the 10% Index is again above the +500 level indicating strong upward momentum and that any correction will be followed by a retest of the current price highs. Concurring with this, we are going to retest the price highs made earlier in the year. I don't expect the following correction to be as severe and that the trend of the market is now positive and targeting the 1200-1250 zone (roughly the 5 year price average)

The McClellan Oscillator and Summation Index
Click to enlarge

The SPX from 1929 to April 30, 2009
Click to enlarge

Sum Perspective

The McClellan Oscillator is overbought and so are a number of other indicators. However, this looks like one of those times where 'overbought' is indicating an impulsive move higher. Sharp corrections can occur at any time but in my view, the markets will continue to climb this huge wall of worry.

The monthly S&P 500 Index with the MCO and SUM Index
Note the Bollinger Bands on the SPX Chart are 5 year (60 months)
Click to expand

Added May 6th 2009 -- from a response to a query:

I played around with BB's on a couple of the acdvance-decline oscillators, but more to see how the increasing number of issues traded was affecting the numbers. Most oscillators are used with a signal line which I think makes the additional use of the BB's unnecessary.

I posted the chart of the MCO-SUM above last week. I was curious about when the Summation Index was "too high" and how the number of issues traded affected this. Also I had felt that the true "zero" line of the Summation Index was closer to 1000 than zero, the long average on the chart confirms this.

With the SUM, turning down from one of the spike peaks means a couple of things, First the MCO has gone below zero -- but even this has more than one ramification because this can occur with both the 10% and 5% Indexes still being positive, indicating that the advance decline line is still trending up. When the SUM index is very negative, and the 10% index is below -500 like it was earlier in the year, its turning up affects only the stronger than market stocks (the ones that go up) and other issues will continue to slide to new lows.

So in the chart above, I marked the penetrations of the upper BB, these do not usually mark tops in the market, they may mark short term reversal points. What they do indicate is high momentum to the upside and usually any correction is followed by a continuation of the move.

Given the market volatility over the last year, I expect the Summation Index to continue higher -- at least to the 5000 level and potentially to all time highs above 6000. My reasoning for this is that the recent crash was extended in time and took the SPX from its upper BB to below the lower BB. The move from -4130 to +4345 (yesterday) occurred as the SPX recovered from below the 5 year BB to a point just inside the BB. Trading this far below the BB is bearish and I suspect that the SPX will fail initially at roughly SPX 1000 - and decline towards the BB again. I still want to see a decline with the 10% Index staying above the -500 level, this would provide the opportunity. None the less, getting the SPX to the 1000 level will take some time and this will I think will drive the SUM Index to the 6000 level. Should this occur, it again will setup a condition where the SUM index is indicating the move higher is not finished.

All of this is very bullish.

Summation Index

The NYSE McClellan Summation index is poised to make new recovery highs by the end of the week. To add a bit of bull-bear perspective on this indicator, here's a wider chart

The NYSE Summation Index
Looks high? could go higher.
Click to enlarge

A bit more cautionary is the 50 day Bullish Percent Index (The percentage of NYSE Issues above their 50 day moving averages) This has reached previous peak levels but since the 200 Day Index is still below 25%, it seems likely to me that the 50 day may just dawdle above the 50% level foe awhile. Time will tell.

The NYSE Bullish Percent Index
Click to enlarge

SPX Cycles for 4/3/09

The markets continue to grind higher but are overbought enough so we should expect a sharp one or two day correction at any time. I do not think the correction will be nasty and deep like last January, more of a scare to ease out the nervous longs and trap the overly aggressive shorts.

The 10% Index component of the MCO again went above the +500 positive threshold. It did this in January and the nastiness of the following correction surprised me. However, I don't think this will be the case now, primarily because the 200 day Bullish Percent Index has finally moved up off the floor where it has been flatlined since October - thats nearly a full six months and about as bearish as it gets.

The fact that this 200 day Bullish Percent indicator has turned up means that
a. the 200 day averages have declined down closer to the recent price levels and
b. that the recent price movement has turned up enough for some stocks to finally move above their 200 day averages.

In the worst periods of this bear market, 95% of the NYSE stocks were below their 200 day moving averages. This is extraordinarily bearish behavior which seldom ever occurs and I seriously doubt if we will see this happen again anytime soon.

Finally, I have updated the cycle chart for the SPX. During the worst part of the recent decline, the short term cycle amplitudes were so high they overwhelmed the longer term periods making it hard to see and set the cycle intervals. Things have settled down a bit now so I updated the chart. (note TD = trading days)
55 TD & 27.5 TD (1/2 span) - This is the most consistent trading cycle going back a few years
71 TD & 30.5 TD (1/2 span) - Again reasonably consistent over the last few years
20.33 TD - Short term trading period - a slightly elastic mix of 8-9-10 TD short term cycles adding up to something between 18-21 TD and averaging out around 20 TD's

On days with a vertical cycle bar/line I look for a trend change or an acceleration of the move. Works sometimes, sometimes not. Right now it's worth paying close attention, a lot of things are adding up to indicate jerky action in the next few days.


The McClellan Oscillator for the week ending 4/03/09
Click to enlarge

The NYSE Bullish Percent Indexes
Click to enlarge

The SPX daily chart with cycles
Click to enlarge

The SPX daily chart with more stuff
Click to enlarge

Intermediate Term Trend Reversal

It was apparent over the last few weeks that the selling in the US stock markets was nearing an exhaustion point. As of the close this week I am updating my intermediate term status to Moderately Bullish. The upside target for the DJIA is in the 10000 to 11000 range or about 30% above this weeks close.

While I still believe that we will probably see another stab at the lows, I believe that the absolute price low has been established and will not be exceeded on the downside. Pessimism is so thick you can cut it with a knife but the market is refusing to respond to negative news in the way it had over the past 6 months.

The MACD on the weekly chart has been diverging from the price behavior, part of this is a function of the math but with the weekly MACD, positive crossovers above the signal line are good trading signals. Since this indicator is so far below the zero line, it indicates that we could see a rally lasting several months.

Intermediate term investors should consider allocating funds to equities. The easiest way to do this would be by using one of the Index ETF's - consult your financial advisor.

The Weekly DJIA for 3/27/09
Click to enlarge

Coming out of the hole.

The McClellan Oscillator is in overbought territory but will probably stay there for awhile longer. The recent selloff was very severe and in all likelihood a temporary trading low has been established.

The McClellan Oscillator for 3/19/09
Click to enlarge

The Percent of stocks above the 50 and 200 day averages.
Click to enlarge

The 1937-38 DJIA Template

One mans opinion...
The DJIA from 1937-1938
From Profitable Investing by Richard Band
One Bottom Behind Us - Tue, 3/10/09 - 7 PM ET
Based on the historical "template" from 1937-38. He is
looking for an important stock market bottom this month,
Click to enlarge

MCO for the week

We're oversold and have had a long string of negative days, a bounce can be expected. The one caveat in this market is that the bounce can be put off for a day or two, which isn't so hot. Never the less, I think we turn up next week.

The McClellan Oscillator at Friday's close
Click to enlarge

SPX Weekly Chart

The SPX Weekly chart with price time grid
646
Click to enlarge

Grey Monday

When the market internals fall apart after an extended period of declining prices it is an indication that things are really bad. In almost any other market I can recall, the lows in the McClellan Oscillator would have produced a reversal. What is occurring now is that prices look cheap to people and the market bounces before it can capitulate. This results in the grinding kind of decline we are seeing, it is a slow motion crash.

The McClellan Oscillator for Monday 3/2/09
Click to enlarge

An Update on the DJIA Monthly Chart
Click to enlarge

The original chart was posted on Nov 11, 2008 We hit the trendline but I suspect we are going lower still.

Sad Looking February

Weekly charts of the DJIA Components
Click to enlarge

Rock 'n Roll

Enough already, taking the previous post into account (anything can happen) A news event could spur a 400 point up day Tuesday or Wednesday. We still need to expect a retest later on, but for now this looks done.

The McClellan Oscillator as of 2/23/09
Click to enlarge

Oops

Following up on yesterdays post, everything broke down today and the retest failed.
McClellan Oscillator and 10 % Index failure.
click to enlarge
Update:

The one mitigating factor which 'might' indicate the present low could turn out to be significant is the action of the 10% index in early January when it was well above the +500 threshold. It is possible this was nothing other than an effect of a high amplitude oscillation since the 10% index had been below -1000 in November. However it appears that the December period when the 10% Index stayed near zero for a couple of weeks would mitigate the idea that the readings over +500 were just an overshoot.

It is not clear yet how the markets are going to resolve this recent decline but the possibility does exist that the +700 reading on the 10% Index is statistically significant and indicates that market breadth has turned higher even though prices still languish at the lows. If this is the case then last weeks -621 reading on the 10% Index should be followed by an immediate strong rally starting Monday or Tuesday. Any price pullback or correction in the next 10 days should occur with the 10% Index staying above the -500 level.

FYI the 10% Index is an 10% exponential movinga average of the Advances- Declines.
Calculated as follows:
AD = Advancing-Declining Issues
10% Index(today) = 10% Index(yesterday)*0.9 + 0.1*AD

Update: I was asked about how todays McClllan Oscillator compares with 2003 bottoming period.

The MCO at the 2003 market low

Groping for a low?

There is not a whole lot to say here. The markets are oversold enough for a bounce or for a severe breakdown.

My best guess is that the price action will be choppy into the Friday option expiration. If this occurs with the market breadth holding up, the Advances-Declines staying above -2500 or so, we might have a successful retest that could last for a few months at least. If the market breadth breaks down then we are back at square one and will need to wait for another low at a later date before we can draw any conclusions.

The McClellan Oscillator for 2/18/09
Click to enlarge

January Wrapup

January ended up on a sour note and it appears now that the weakness will carry over into the early part of February. The first chart is the SPX in multiple timeframes. All look like we can expect weakness for at least the next few days. In particular the 60 minute MACD is still strongly negative and needs at least a day to turn.

The SPX Weekly, Daily, 60 min and 10 min charts
Click to enlarge
The McClellan Oscillator reached into overbought territory and is now declining. While we are approaching the green trendline I doubt this will hold and we can expect the MCO to test the -200 level. This will create an oversold condition favorable for a reversal. The key factor is whether or not the 10% Index can manage to stay above the -500 level. Over the last week I have noticed that on declining days, the Advance-Decline numbers have remained a bit stronger than in the past. If this pattern holds in the next decline I would expect the 10% Index to stay above -500.

The McClellan Oscillator for 1-31-09
Click to enlarge
The HiLo Index is diverging from the price which is bullish. Given the recent market history, I don't see any way this can change. This makes the indicator a bit irrelevant for at least 10 more months. However the Percent of Stocks Above their Moving Averages (50 and 200 day) is giving us good information here. When the 50 Day Percent Index got into the upper overbought range, the market sold off. At the same time, the number of stocks above their 200 day average is sick and needs life support. The fact that the number of stocks above the 50 day average got up into the upper range indicates that we might see the 200 day Percent Above Index start to turn up reasonably soon.

HiLo Index and the Percent Above the 50 and 200 day averages.
Click to enlarge
Finally, here is a long term (all the available data) for the Percent Above Indicators for reference.

Historical view of Percent Avove
Click to enlarge
While I remain of the opinion that we can expect the SPX to test its 200 day moving average, the exact question is when. IF the markets can weather the upcoming decline, then I believe we will have established the correct conditions for a more sustained move higher. The key factor to watch is market breadth, if the Advance-Declines can hold up better than they have over the last 18 months, it will keep the 10% index above -500 and confirm a reversal. If not, we are back to square one.