Sunday, July 12, 2009

Setup for a reversal

It's been a rugged four weeks but barring a deep plunge with lopsided advance decline stats a reversal looks like it's about to start. It's possible to see another price zig zag in the lower end of the range but given the overly negative sentiment numbers I doubt this will happen. Although it has taken up four weeks the correction has been rather shallow as the indexes follow the 200 day averages a bit lower. This has masked deeper corrections in individual stocks which is weighing heavily on the sentiments of individual investors. It appears everyone is looking for lower prices. This may not happen, the various technical indicators are signaling that the correction has been deep enough and long enough to sustain a rally for more than a week or two. July 15th is an anniversary date and a cycle point which should be a reversal higher.

The NYSE McClellan Oscillator
Click to enlarge

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