Sunday, June 13, 2010

The VIX Perspective

The VIX (this is the old VIX, the VXO) provides some historical perspective on the fear factor in the markets, especially when viewed over varying timeframes. I do not expect the peaks reached in late 2009 to be revisited anytime in the near term.

Saturday, June 5, 2010

Painful but constructive

While the possibility for a news driven crash like decline still exists, I'm inclined to think that barring any extreme new negative news, the markets are attempting to reverse at present levels. I've marked up the MCO chart with why I think this is the case.

Below is a set of SPX charts in different time frames. The lower low in the PPO (MACD) on the daily chart indicates that more time is required to complete the bottoming process. Typically this would occur as a lower price low accompanied by a higher low on the PPO ((MACD).