Tuesday, July 8, 2008

Summer Rally?

I'm posting on the road, without access to many of my regular technical tools, including my cycle charts, but for the moment the markets are looking more positive than thay have been over the last two months.

The NYSE MCO looks like it has finally completed a complex bottom and reversed to the upside today. Stronger than market stocks should begin moving higher. This has been a fairly nasty decline and a bit more backing and filling could occur but I doubt prices of the major indexes will fall much further over the short term.

One caveat: I checked the unadjusted MCO values yesterday, including the values for the 10% index which were not good, in the minus 700 range. These are negative blowout values on the downside and will require a retest of the recent lows again within the next few months.

My general opinion is that one could short the upcoming rally, looking for the final lows in the August timeframe. The chart of the NYSE composite looks like it will fall to 8000 (another 6% or 7%) on the retest.

See the chart at Stockcharts.com: