Thursday, December 26, 2013

The Christmas Rally Continues

Don't fight the FED. The crossovers in the MACD's generally result in 15-20 trading days of upward movement. We are just starting.

The McClellan Oscillator and Summation Index
at the close on Dec 26 2013

Tuesday, October 1, 2013

Update on Oct 1st (the sequester day)

The current corrective phase is at the mercy of politics> The cycles and othe indicators suggest another week of choppy behavior.

The McClellan Oscillator and SUM Index
This is in a minor corrective phase within an uptrend
Click images to enlarge

The S&P 500 index with 15 day cycle

The Nasdaq Composite index with 15 day cycle

The QQQ with 15 day cycle (10/2 close)

Monday, September 2, 2013

Oversold- Working on a bottom

A long term chart of the McClellan Oscillator and Summation Index In oversold territory but I expect more choppy action, possibly lower lows before a reversal.

Click to Enlarge

Monday, August 19, 2013

Oversold and dangerous

At Mondays close the McClellan Oscillator is retesting the recent lows with the 10% Index going well below -500. This indicates that any rally will be followed by another retest of the current lows. In all likelihood the major induce will retest their 200 day moving averages. Caution is warranted.

Oversold but dicey

The McClellan Oscillator is in the oversold zone in an apparent retest of the last low where the 10% Index went below -500. It would be most constructive if the market rallies Monday 8/19 and keeps the 10% Index above the -500 level.

Sunday, May 19, 2013

Overbought but still bullish

The NYSE McClellan Oscillator at the 5/17 close
Click to enlarge

Wednesday, May 8, 2013

Overbought - but Fueled by the FED

Don't fight the FED. Low interest rates will continue to fuel higher stock prices. The supply-demand pundits have not taken into account trillions of dollars currently invested in the bond market as further fuel for this rally. Money seeking better returns will continue to migrate into the stock market.

2Year AD Line and McClellan Summation Index — So far the AD Line has stayed below the 3 STDEV Bollinger Band which I view as overbought but constructive for continuation of the upward trend. Expect a correction and a retest of the highs.
Click to Enlarge

AD Line and McClellan Summation Index from mid 2006 showing the breakdown in the AD Line and SUM Index, At the present these indicators are giving no signs of a top.
Click to Enlarge