Intermediate Term Trend Reversal

It was apparent over the last few weeks that the selling in the US stock markets was nearing an exhaustion point. As of the close this week I am updating my intermediate term status to Moderately Bullish. The upside target for the DJIA is in the 10000 to 11000 range or about 30% above this weeks close.

While I still believe that we will probably see another stab at the lows, I believe that the absolute price low has been established and will not be exceeded on the downside. Pessimism is so thick you can cut it with a knife but the market is refusing to respond to negative news in the way it had over the past 6 months.

The MACD on the weekly chart has been diverging from the price behavior, part of this is a function of the math but with the weekly MACD, positive crossovers above the signal line are good trading signals. Since this indicator is so far below the zero line, it indicates that we could see a rally lasting several months.

Intermediate term investors should consider allocating funds to equities. The easiest way to do this would be by using one of the Index ETF's - consult your financial advisor.

The Weekly DJIA for 3/27/09
Click to enlarge