Here is a chart of the S&P 500 including dividends (red) monthly. I've included the 7.57% compounded growth trend since 1950 with a pair of over and under percentage brackets. The heavy green line is the actual S&P500 minus the 7.57% trendline (scaled as percent to right). I would expect to see the market move in the range shaded in pink, under the 7.57% trend but above the lower envelope.
S&P 500 including dividends (red) monthly Click to enlarge