Friday, February 20, 2009


Following up on yesterdays post, everything broke down today and the retest failed.
McClellan Oscillator and 10 % Index failure.
click to enlarge


The one mitigating factor which 'might' indicate the present low could turn out to be significant is the action of the 10% index in early January when it was well above the +500 threshold. It is possible this was nothing other than an effect of a high amplitude oscillation since the 10% index had been below -1000 in November. However it appears that the December period when the 10% Index stayed near zero for a couple of weeks would mitigate the idea that the readings over +500 were just an overshoot.

It is not clear yet how the markets are going to resolve this recent decline but the possibility does exist that the +700 reading on the 10% Index is statistically significant and indicates that market breadth has turned higher even though prices still languish at the lows. If this is the case then last weeks -621 reading on the 10% Index should be followed by an immediate strong rally starting Monday or Tuesday. Any price pullback or correction in the next 10 days should occur with the 10% Index staying above the -500 level.

FYI the 10% Index is an 10% exponential movinga average of the Advances- Declines.
Calculated as follows:
AD = Advancing-Declining Issues
10% Index(today) = 10% Index(yesterday)*0.9 + 0.1*AD

Update: I was asked about how todays McClllan Oscillator compares with 2003 bottoming period.

The MCO at the 2003 market low

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