Saturday, March 24, 2012

MCO Update 3/23/12

The McClellan Oscillator is pulling back to retest the low made two weeks ago. We are in the zone for the 39 TD (trading day) and the 13TD cycle low spots. It might have been Friday but I have a hunch it will probably stretch out a little longer into either Monday or Tuesday.

What we don't want to see here is a breakdown in the MCO and its components. The MCO, New Highs and Summation Index have been diverging from the SPX price, moving lower while the SPX moved higher. Late in a move this might be of some concern. However, since the markets made very oversold lows last October, and fear is still prevalent among the investing public, I think what we are seeing is a quiet correction in stocks as investors remain skeptical and exit the market. On the positive side, the Climatic Volume Indicator (not shown here) has remained well behaved and not given any signals that could be seen as the buying climaxes one would expect if the market was forming a top. Some caution is warranted until the indicators quit lagging the price action but my view remains bullish.

This chart is a bit different than the others. It only covers the last three months with the $SPX plotted using hourly data and the indicators using daily data. There is a slight misalignment but it's small, about 1/2 a day.

The SPX with the McClellan Oscillator
Click to enlarge

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