Friday, March 23, 2012

$BKX Headed much higher

Some observations on the financial stocks. The $BKX chart is looking quite positive for the first time since the 2008 collapse. Ignoring the 2009 overshoot lows, it has been trading in a basing channel between $33 and $58, with most of the trading confined to an even tighter range between $42 and $58. The recent decline below $42 was the result of fears over the Greece banking issues in Europe.

It is not uncommon, in fact it is more frequent than not, for a basing channel to end with one final selloff below the general channel bottom.

This is precisely what happened as a reaction to the Greece/Euro news and the $BKX made a tidy double bottom reversal, did a modest retest of the breakout point at $42, and promptly punched through its 200 WEEK moving average. Currently at the upper Bollinger Band (20Wk 2 Stdev) we could see a slight pullback in the financials to retest the moving average, or not.

The expected move out of the recent double bottom, projects right back to the top of the longer term basing channel, roughly $58. I would expect some pause there ultimately resolving itself with a breakout move higher. The long term base projects to the upper line at $83 and previous resistance. Over the longer term we should see the $BKX over the $100 level.

If the financials go up, so will the indexes. The SPX could go as high as $2000 in the process.

The Financial Index $BKX
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