Sunday, September 14, 2008

SPX weekly Cycles - 08/09/12

I find the cycles interactively with a piece of software I wrote that allows me to draw them on the chart, and fit them visually by eye. I use the Yahoo data set going back to 1987 and try to find the best match visually.

In the chart I've posted below there seems to be a dominant weekly cycle period of just over 13 weeks (13.016), double this is 26.032 weeks which is close to what Tim calculated (26.286).

The nominal 26 week hits 3 weeks from now

I also found a good fit using the 5X multiple, or 65.016 weeks. This should hit in the first week of January 2009. (Tax loss selling)

The span of 57.75 weeks is a bit rougher in the overall match accuracy but hits this week and is symmetric with the July 2006 - Aug 2007 lows.

Also marked on this chart are the retrace levels for the entire move since the 2002 low. With the markets under stress, a 50% retrace to 1172 seems highly likely with a very good chance the 1150 area will be penetrated as well.

This is an ugly market we are still on a crash watch.

Click to enlarge

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