Tuesday, September 23, 2008

I Feel Your Pain

Washington is saying, "Give me your bucks, they stop here, honest, trust me."

The rescue may save the banks, but thousands of Baby Boomers are watching their IRA's deflate like an old balloon. Wall street is awash in fear, prices will go lower.

I marked some fibonacci retracements on the daily SPX chart. The measures in yellow start at the 1974 low to the recent highs. The measures in cyan start at the 1994 low, the one prior to the bull run. The white measures to the right are taken from the start of the bull market in 2003 to its high in 2007.

Finally, I've included a measure in light-orange (with dots) that is loosely taken for the complex topping pattern made by the SPX. Everything seems to be pointing at the 1000 level on the SPX cash. The 1000 level is a round number which presents a psychological pull on price behavior. With participant psychology as negative as it presently is, 1000 seems like the first line in the sand with any chance of halting the market's current decline.

As noted the daily MACD still has failed to cross the signal line. I suspect it will within a few days but unfortunately any rally will be short lived.

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