Friday, February 3, 2012

A bit overbought but still headed higher

The bigger perspective on this market move.
The SPX, MCO, 10% Index and Summation Index.
The period covered is from late 2008 to 2/3/2012.
Click to enlarge

In spite of all the negative commentaries, the AD Line continues to grind higher along with the market indexes. No doubt we will have a correction at some point but I don't think it will be the start of a new bear market.

The bottom chart is the Summation Index which is an intermediate term trend indicator. I've included two moving averages, an 80 day and a 160 day. Look back at how the SUM index and its moving averages behaved, at post market turing points and then compare them with the current configuration. We are about a month into a strong upward move. One should expect the rate upward to moderate somewhat fairly soon, but it also looks like the SPX is headed back to the old highs by the end of the year.

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