Tuesday, January 29, 2008

Shaping up

After bouncing off the panic lows last week, the markets paused to refresh and contemplate the coming FED announcement on Wednesday. The general consensus is that the FED will cut rates again, by 1/2 point. If they only cut by a 1/4 point or don't cut rates at all it will spook the markets, so keep an eye out for that. Congress, is wrapping up the loose ends on the election year bribe, I can't wait...

The McClellan Oscillator is at +150 which is in the short term overbought area and we could expect a pullback sometime in the next 2-4 days. I've marked on the chart the next relevant cycle CIT (change in trend) points.

I checked the CIT dates for the two dots marked on the chart, the first one is Monday Feb 4 and the second one is Wednesday Feb 13. If the first one is a high then the MCO suggests a pullback from there, or the market and MCO could peak this Wednesday or Thursday and turn down into a low Monday or Tuesday of next week. The lower set of indicators have finally started to turn but I still think the general trend is sideways for at least the next 13 trading days. After that, it will all depend on how the market behaves on the sure to come retests of the recent lows. From here, it looks like US equity markets are forming a major bottom.

S&P 500 Daily - Click to enlarge

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